Note: This unit version is currently under review and is subject to change!

PMGT5891: Project Risk Management (2019 - Semester 2)

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Unit: PMGT5891: Project Risk Management (6 CP)
Mode: Normal-Evening
On Offer: Yes
Level: Postgraduate
Faculty/School: Project Management
Unit Coordinator/s: Afzal, Fatima
Session options: Semester 1, Semester 2, Semester 2 Online
Versions for this Unit:
Site(s) for this Unit: http://elearning.sydney.edu.au/
Campus: Camperdown/Darlington
Pre-Requisites: None.
Brief Handbook Description: The aims of this course are to develop students; understanding and ability in applying project risk management skills in project environments. The course enables the students to apply best practice techniques and methods commonly used by industry in project risk management.

The competencies developed through this unit cover and go beyond the competencies in Risk areas as outlined in the competency standards by the Australian Institute of Project Management and Project Management Institute in the USA, respectively. The UoS aims to develop students ability to understand and conceptualise risk management issues, and analyse and apply risk management techniques using concepts and frameworks from the underpinning literature.

- Ability to establish risk management plans, policies & integrate them with other project plans, organisation & align them to the business case

- Ability to understand the sources of potential risks (including but not limited to political, organisational, psychological and technical risks) and to use risk management tools & techniques to identify, assess, evaluate, & prioritise risks

- Ability to simulate the potential effects of risks on schedule, cost and other performance dimensions using sensitivity analysis, decision tree analysis and simulation techniques.

- Ability to track, monitor & control risks & actions to achieve project objectives & the business case

- Ability to close risks for an optimal outcome
Assumed Knowledge: None.
Lecturer/s: Rollo, Michael
Mr McGarry, Gerard
Tutor/s: Gareth Chegwidden
Timetable: PMGT5891 Timetable
Time Commitment:
# Activity Name Hours per Week Sessions per Week Weeks per Semester
1 E-Learning 3.00 13
2 Independent Study 6.00 13

Learning outcomes are the key abilities and knowledge that will be assessed in this unit. They are listed according to the course goal supported by each. See Assessment Tab for details how each outcome is assessed.

Project Development (Level 4)
1. Ability to establish risk management plans, policies & integrate them with other project plans, organisation & align them to the business case.
2. Ability to understand the sources of potential risks (including but not limited to political, organisational, psychological and technical risks) and to use risk management tools & techniques to identify, assess, evaluate, & prioritise risks.
Project Methods (Level 4)
3. Ability to simulate the potential effects of risks on schedule, cost and other performance dimensions using sensitivity analysis, decision tree analysis and simulation techniques.
Project Delivery (Level 4)
4. Ability to track, monitor & control risks & actions to achieve project objectives & the business case.
5. Ability to close risks for an optimal outcome.
Assessment Methods:
# Name Group Weight Due Week Outcomes
1 Group Assignment Yes 30.00 Week 8 1, 2, 4,
2 Group Presentation Yes 20.00 Week 10 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
3 Discussion Forum - Group Yes 10.00 Multiple Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
4 Final exam No 40.00 Exam Period 2,
Assessment Description: Group assignment (30% written and 20% presentation) is designed to give you some practical exposure to some of the techniques and tools. Both assignments will be performed in teams. The assignment details and the case study used are posted separately.

Discussion forums (10%). There are also 4 online discussion forums. All students are required to participate in the discussion forums. These forums will be based around case studies where you will be asked to consider what went wrong, or in one case what went right. There is a strong tendency for technical people to focus on the obvious technical risks in projects, and not as much on the less obvious and more people focused risks. The case study discussions should give you an opportunity to explore these issues.

Exam (40%) - You must get 50% in the final exam to pass the unit, regardless of the sum of your individual marks.

IMPORTANT:

- Late penalty for assignments is 5% per day. After 10 days late (with special consideration) an assignment gets 0.

- There may be statistically defensible moderation when combining the marks from each component to ensure consistency of marking between markers, and alignment of final grades with unit outcomes.

- The University has authorised and mandated the use of text-based similarity detecting software Turnitin for all text-based written assignments.
Grading:
Grade Type Description
Standards Based Assessment Final grades in this unit are awarded at levels of HD for High Distinction, DI (previously D) for Distinction, CR for Credit, PS (previously P) for Pass and FA (previously F) for Fail as defined by University of Sydney Assessment Policy. Details of the Assessment Policy are available on the Policies website at http://sydney.edu.au/policies . Standards for grades in individual assessment tasks and the summative method for obtaining a final mark in the unit will be set out in a marking guide supplied by the unit coordinator.
Policies & Procedures: See the policies page of the faculty website at http://sydney.edu.au/engineering/student-policies/ for information regarding university policies and local provisions and procedures within the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies.
Online Course Content: Please see course material on Blackboard prior to class start. Login at http://elearning.sydney.edu.au/
Note on Resources: Students should also be familiar with the PMBok Guide and AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management standard.

Note that the "Weeks" referred to in this Schedule are those of the official university semester calendar https://web.timetable.usyd.edu.au/calendar.jsp

Week Description
Week 1 Introduction to Risk Standards: AS/NZS ISO 31000 and PMBoK. Definitions,Terminology, process, RBS, Risk Plans, Basics of Risk management
Week 2 As above
Week 3 Overview of tools used in risk management.

Interviews, questionnaires, scoring models, checklists, FMEA, Delphi, PERT, decision stress, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo, Intro to probability
Week 4 as above
Week 5 Approaches to dealing with risk in projects

Contingency Plans (& fallback plans)
Week 6 Developing contigency reserves - EMV, probability, impact assessment, removing the overlap between individual risks

Project reserves - why are they used
Week 7 Unknown unknowns - and Black Swans or the extreme unpredictable events

Psychological errors in estimating (Kahneman and Tversky et al)

Introduction to probability

Opportunity management
Week 8 Problem with scoring models - ways to improve

Calibration of estimators

Critical Chain scheduling

Value of additional data
Assessment Due: Group Assignment
Week 9 Modeling - decision trees, PERT and sensitivity analysis, Delphi, Monte Carlo technique
Week 10 As above
Assessment Due: Group Presentation
Week 11 Utility theory and the organisations risk appetite

Allocation of risk between parties
Week 12 Risk reporting

Risk contingency usage, risk triggers

Capturing lesson learned
Week 13 Alternative approaches for dealing with major uncertainties and complexity around projects

Project escalation
Exam Period Assessment Due: Final exam

Course Relations

The following is a list of courses which have added this Unit to their structure.

Course Year(s) Offered
Graduate Diploma in Project Leadership 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Master of Project Leadership 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Master of Project Management 2017, 2019, 2020, 2015, 2016, 2018
Graduate Certificate in Project Leadership 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Graduate Certificate in Project Management 2012, 2013, 2014
Graduate Diploma in Project Management 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Master of Engineering 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Master of Project Management 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

Course Goals

This unit contributes to the achievement of the following course goals:

Attribute Practiced Assessed
Project Development (Level 4) No 72%
Project Methods (Level 4) No 6%
Project Delivery (Level 4) No 22%
Project Communication (Level 4) No 0%

These goals are selected from Project Management Learning Progression Table 2019 which defines overall goals for courses where this unit is primarily offered. See Project Management Learning Progression Table 2019 for details of the attributes and levels to be developed in the course as a whole. Percentage figures alongside each course goal provide a rough indication of their relative weighting in assessment for this unit. Note that not all goals are necessarily part of assessment. Some may be more about practice activity. See Learning outcomes for details of what is assessed in relation to each goal and Assessment for details of how the outcome is assessed. See Attributes for details of practice provided for each goal.