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ENGG3853: Project Risk Management: Tools & Techniques (2019 - Semester 1)

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Unit: ENGG3853: Project Risk Management: Tools & Techniques (6 CP)
Mode: Normal-Day
On Offer: Yes
Level: Senior
Faculty/School: School of Project Management
Unit Coordinator/s: Dr Liu, Li
Session options: Semester 1
Versions for this Unit:
Campus: Camperdown/Darlington
Pre-Requisites: ENGG2851.
Prohibitions: CIVL4810.
Brief Handbook Description: Managing risk is an essential skill to be a successful project manager. This course will provide students with an understanding of risk and the key principles of risk management as described in AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009. The course will show how these principles can be applied to project management both through the project development phase and the project delivery phase. This will include skills on how to measure and value risk and assess the potential impacts it may have on a project outcomes using qualitative and quantitative risk assessment techniques. Using case studies students will learn ways to treat risk to minimise the potential impact. The course will also cover techniques for establishing levels of risk appetite and risk tolerance. It will overview risk reporting tools and templates and conclude with a session on human behaviour and how this impacts on risk acceptance and risk aversion in a project context.

On successful completion of this course students will have a good understanding of the basic principles of risk and risk management, be able to apply risk assessment and treatment techniques, be able to quantify potential risk impacts and to establish a prioritised project risk register to enable project risks to be competently managed.
Assumed Knowledge: None.
Lecturer/s: Rollo, Michael
Tutor/s: Peter O`Driscoll

Sheryl Chang
Timetable: ENGG3853 Timetable
Time Commitment:
# Activity Name Hours per Week Sessions per Week Weeks per Semester
1 Lecture 2.00 1 13
2 Tutorial 2.00 1 11
3 Independent Study 6.00 1 12

Attributes listed here represent the key course goals (see Course Map tab) designated for this unit. The list below describes how these attributes are developed through practice in the unit. See Learning Outcomes and Assessment tabs for details of how these attributes are assessed.

Attribute Development Method Attribute Developed
Tutorial and assessment practice to be able to prepare a credible and complete risk assessment register for large scale projects. Project Development (Level 3)
Tutorial and assessment practice to be able to prepare a credible and complete risk assessment register for large scale projects. Project Delivery (Level 3)
Tutorial and assessment practice with deterministic and probabilistic modelling tools to be able to develop credible and appropriate quantified residual risks. Project Methods (Level 3)
Tutorial and assessment practice to be able to clearly convey a competent understanding of risk management principles, demonstrate critical judgement skills and the appropriate use of specialist language. Project Communication (Level 3)

For explanation of attributes and levels see Project Management Learning Progression Table 2019.

Learning outcomes are the key abilities and knowledge that will be assessed in this unit. They are listed according to the course goal supported by each. See Assessment Tab for details how each outcome is assessed.

Project Development (Level 3)
1. Assess risk and quantify potential impacts at the project development phase.
2. Present risk assessment outcomes in business cases and project estimates.
Project Delivery (Level 3)
3. Assess risk and quantify potential impacts during the project delivery phase.
4. Effectively treat risks to minimise potential impacts.
5. Prepare reports on potential risk impacts to the projects objectives.
Project Methods (Level 3)
6. Understand levels of risk, likelihood vs consequence; planned and unplanned risks; and assess the key sources of risk for a project.
7. Establish the ISO 31000 processes to manage risk.
8. Apply deterministic and probabilistic techniques to quantify potential risk impacts and to set project contingencies.
9. Set risk appetite and risk tolerance levels.
Project Communication (Level 3)
10. Present risk assessment outcomes in a business case.
11. Present risk assessment outcomes for a project estimate.
12. Present potential risk impacts to project delivery outcomes.
Assessment Methods:
# Name Group Weight Due Week Outcomes
1 Written Assignment* No 20.00 Week 7 6, 7, 8,
2 Poster Assignment (Groups of 3) Yes 20.00 Week 11 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,
3 Presentation Assignment (Groups of 6) Yes 10.00 Week 12 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
4 Discussion Forums (3 in Total) Yes 6.00 Multiple Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
5 On-line Quiz (2 in Total) No 4.00 Multiple Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
6 Exam* No 40.00 Exam Period 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
Assessment Description: * Indicates an assessment task that must be repeated if a student misses it due to special circumstances

Assignment 1: due week 7 [20%]. [written report format] Covers learnings on what is risk and the ISO 31000 risk management processes through evaluation of a case study example to develop a risk assessment matrix and prioritised risk register.

Assignment 2: due week 11 [20%]. [poster format] Involves the development of a project risk assessment matrix and covers risk appetite and risk tolerance modelling. To be presented by the team during the week 11 tutorial session.

Assignment 3: due week 12. [10%] [presentation format] Covers risk assessment and quantification for either a project development or project delivery example. Using case studies Students will present a simulated risk management scenario to their peers in the week 12 tutorial session.

On-line discussion forum participation [6%] [three forums from week 2 to 13] All students are required to make at least two contributions to each of the three discussion forums. Each forum will be based on a specific case study example. Contributions will be in writing between 50 and 150 words and relate to the topic and the debate. Students will have two weeks to make their posts. Marks based on participation and contributions.

On-line Quizzes [4%] [two quizzes - week 5 and week 10]. Students will have the opportunity to complete two on-line quizzes comprising multiple choice and short answer questions to earn extra marks. Quizzes will cover topics covered in lectures. Marks based on participation and effort.

Final Exam: [40%] The final exam will assess the materials covered in the lectures and tutorials throughout the course. A minimum of 40% must be achieved in the final exam to pass this unit of study irrespective of the sum of assessment marks.

Late submissions will incur a penalty of 5% per day for up to 10 days starting directly after the cut off time. After ten days, assessments will no longer be marked and will receive a 0 mark.

IMPORTANT: There may be statistically defensible moderation when combining the marks from each component to ensure consistency of marking between markers, and alignment of final grades with unit outcomes
Grading:
Grade Type Description
Standards Based Assessment Final grades in this unit are awarded at levels of HD for High Distinction, DI (previously D) for Distinction, CR for Credit, PS (previously P) for Pass and FA (previously F) for Fail as defined by University of Sydney Assessment Policy. Details of the Assessment Policy are available on the Policies website at http://sydney.edu.au/policies . Standards for grades in individual assessment tasks and the summative method for obtaining a final mark in the unit will be set out in a marking guide supplied by the unit coordinator.
Policies & Procedures: See the policies page of the faculty website at http://sydney.edu.au/engineering/student-policies/ for information regarding university policies and local provisions and procedures within the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies.
Recommended Reference/s: Note: References are provided for guidance purposes only. Students are advised to consult these books in the university library. Purchase is not required.
  • Project Management Essentials
  • Project Risk Management Guidelines, 2nd Ed

Note that the "Weeks" referred to in this Schedule are those of the official university semester calendar https://web.timetable.usyd.edu.au/calendar.jsp

Week Description
Week 1 Lecture: Introduction - Provide an overview of the course, the context and the learning outcomes and assessments. Introduce risk and risk management and how it applies to project management.
Tutorial: No tutorial in Week 1
Reading: PME - Chapter 1; PRMG - Chapter 1-3
Week 2 Lecture: Qualitative Risk Assessment - An introduction to the concepts of risk analysis, understanding the levels of risk, the concepts of likelihood and consequence; distinguishing between planned and unplanned risks and establishing the sources of risk. Provide an overview of the ISO 31000 risk management processes to identify risk; assess; evaluate; prioritise; treat and mitigate.
Tutorial: Using examples learn how to develop a qualitative risk assessment matrix for threats
Reading: PME Chapter 13; PRMG Chapter 4-8
Week 3 Lecture: Project Management Lifecycle – Sources of Risk - Refresh the fundamentals of project management, as per ENGG1850 Introduction to Project Management, and establish the context for links to effective project risk management. Overview of the sources of risk for the various phases in a projects lifecycle.
Tutorial: Using examples learn how to develop a qualitative risk assessment matrix for opportunities
Reading: PME Chapter 1 to 6
Week 4 Lecture: Qualitative Risk Assessment - Development and completing risk registers. Understanding sources of risk, impact, categories, and risk allocation. Understanding of risk treatment options and how to determine residual risks and residual exposures.
Tutorial: Develop risk registers to summarise risk evaluation and to prioritise risks.
Reading: PME Chapters 7-12; PRMG Chapters 8-14
Week 5 Lecture: Quantitative Risk Assessment (part 1) - Provide an overview of the principles of QRA both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Understand the basis for determining project contingencies. Provide more detail on deterministic models and their use in developing residual exposures.
Tutorial: Work with examples to prepare deterministic QRA and calculate residual exposures.
Reading: PME Chapter 13
Week 6 Lecture: No lecture this week - Tutorial workshop only
Tutorial: Workshop - Evaluation of various risk tools incl. PERT analysis; Decision trees; Bow Tie analysis; Root cause analysis; sensitivity analysis; scenario analysis and contingency development.
Reading: PME Chapter 13; PRMG Chapters 16-19
Week 7 Lecture: Quantitative Risk Assessment (part 2) - Understanding of probabilistic modelling. Likelihood forecasting, impact forecasting, cost estimation simulation, schedule risk analysis. Overview of more complex concepts.
Tutorial: Further work on risk tools and techniques incl. setting risk appetite and risk tolerances. Overview of course so far.
Reading: Case Study, PRMT Chapter 24
Assessment Due: Written Assignment*
Week 8 Lecture: Case Study - Project Concept Phase Risk Management - Applying the tools and techniques to a project during the concept phase. Case Study - Sydney's Metro Rail Project. Understanding how to bring it all together.
Tutorial: No tutorials this week - Easter
Reading: Case Study
Week 9 Lecture: Case Study - Project Procurement Phase Risk Management - Applying the tools and techniques to a project during the Procurement phase. Case study - Melbourne's East Link Road Project Tender
Tutorial: Assignment 2 guidance.
Reading: Case Study; PRMG - Chapters 20-26
Week 10 Lecture: Case Study - Project Delivery Phase Risk Management - Applying the tools and techniques to a project during the delivery phase. Case Study - Sydney's North West Metro tunnel project.
Tutorial: Learn how to conduct a project risk workshop (Assignment 3 guidance)
Reading: Case Study
Week 11 Lecture: Using Insurance as a risk mitigant - History and examples of the use of insurance as a risk mitigant
Tutorial: Presentation of Assignment 2
Assessment Due: Poster Assignment (Groups of 3)
Week 12 Lecture: Psychology of Risk - Overview of simplistic human behaviour criteria and how this impacts risk acceptance and risk aversion in the project context.
Tutorial: Presentation of Assignment 3 - Scenario conducting a risk workshop
Assessment Due: Presentation Assignment (Groups of 6)
Week 13 Lecture: Course wrap up and summary. Trial Exam
Tutorial: Course review and exam preparation [as required]
Exam Period Assessment Due: Exam*

Course Relations

The following is a list of courses which have added this Unit to their structure.

Course Year(s) Offered
Civil / Project Management 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Electrical / Project Management 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Software / Project Management 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

Course Goals

This unit contributes to the achievement of the following course goals:

Attribute Practiced Assessed
Project Development (Level 3) Yes 14.44%
Project Delivery (Level 3) Yes 21.66%
Project Methods (Level 3) Yes 48.88%
Project Communication (Level 3) Yes 14.99%

These goals are selected from Project Management Learning Progression Table 2019 which defines overall goals for courses where this unit is primarily offered. See Project Management Learning Progression Table 2019 for details of the attributes and levels to be developed in the course as a whole. Percentage figures alongside each course goal provide a rough indication of their relative weighting in assessment for this unit. Note that not all goals are necessarily part of assessment. Some may be more about practice activity. See Learning outcomes for details of what is assessed in relation to each goal and Assessment for details of how the outcome is assessed. See Attributes for details of practice provided for each goal.